Earning Release

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited’s (NYSE:AHL) 4Q 08 adjusted1 total revenues were above our expectations. However, the company’s adjusted net income was below our and market expectations. Going forward, we believe that hardening rates and increasing demand for reinsurance services will provide support to the company’s top-line. Moreover, given the company’s guidance, we are likely to revise our premium estimates marginally upwards. At current price levels, we maintain our HOLD rating for the NYSE common stock and will reassess our rating and target price in the coming weeks. As we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock, we maintain our BUY rating. We will reassess the European stock rating for Aspen in our next full update report.

O2Micro International Limited’s (NASDAQ:OIIM) 4Q 08 results exceeded our expectations. Moreover, Management guidance is broadly in line with our previous expectations. In view of this and an anticipated return to stability in the Liquid Crystal Display market, we do not expect a change in our rating despite the expected significant negative impact of the globally weak economic environment on the company’s performance. We maintain our current BUY rating for the stock. We will reassess the ADR rating for O2Micro in the coming weeks. We maintain our current BUY rating for the Hong Kong stock (1 ADR = 50 Hong Kong shares) based on our fundamental outlook. The currency impact on the Hong Kong stock is neutral as the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. We will reassess the Hong Kong stock rating for O2Micro in the coming weeks.

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) reported strong 4Q 08 results in line with our expectations, reflecting strong performances across all of its business segments. Although Management expects a decline in revenues from its PSS and Distribution services segments, this will be partially offset by an anticipated strong performance from its Rig technology segment. As we believe NOV will continue to benefit from its leading position in the oilfield services industry as well as its technological edge that it enjoys over its peers, and as we believe NOV’s NYSE common stock is undervalued at current price levels, we do not anticipate a change in our current rating for NOV’s NYSE common stock. We will reassess NOV’s NYSE common stock rating in the coming weeks. As we expect a positive currency impact on the European stock over our investment horizon2 and given our fundamental outlook, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the European stock rating for NOV in coming weeks.

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation’s (NYSE:NTT) 9M 09 revenues and adjusted1 EBITDA were in line with our estimates. In addition, adjusted operating margin was below our estimate due to higher than anticipated Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) expenses, as a percentage of revenues. However adjusted net margin was above our estimate as a consequence of the lower than expected effective tax rate. As our fundamental outlook for the company largely remains unchanged and as the target price supports a BUY rating at current price levels we are upgrading our common stock rating from a HOLD to a BUY. We will reassess the common stock rating for NTT in our next update report. We reiterate the ADR a BUY as we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the ADR in the medium term. We will reassess the ADR rating for NTT in the coming weeks.

Primus Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:PRS) reported a significant deterioration in performance during 4Q 08 and FY 2008 as mark-to-market and realized losses increased significantly. Our outlook for Primus remains cautious given the current challenging operating conditions and potential credit mitigation costs in the future. Therefore, we maintain the NYSE common stock rating a SELL at current levels. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report. Although we expect a positive currency impact on the European stock over our investment horizon, we maintain our current SELL rating for the European stock based on our fundamental outlook for the company. We will reassess the European stock rating for Primus in our next update report.

Crucell N.V. (NASDAQ:CRXL) reported strong y-o-y revenue growth in 4Q 08. While 4Q 08 revenues were lower than our estimate in 4Q 08, operating and net performance exceeded our expectations. Crucell has reported consistent strong performance in 3Q 08 and 4Q 08, in terms of profitability. Hence, we expect to revise our operating and net margin estimates upwards for the next 2 years. Consequently, although the common stock price no longer supports a HOLD rating at current price levels, we maintain our HOLD rating and will reassess our target price and rating in our 4Q 08 and FY2008 update report. Based on our expectation of a significant negative currency impact on the ADR, we reiterate our SELL rating for the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 4Q 08 and FY2008 update report.

Banco Santander Central Hispano S.A. (NYSE:STD) has reported modest results for 4Q 08 and FY 2008. Although Net Interest Income (NII) grew robustly, supported by fee-based and insurance income, the bottom-line was weakened by a sharp rise in impairment losses. Looking ahead, although we are concerned about the rise in the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio and the slowdown in the global economy, we are optimistic about improvements in cost efficiency and long term benefits to arise from the company’s emerging market footprint. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating for the common stock. We will reassess our common stock rating for Santander in our next full update report. We maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR as we continue to expect a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over our investment horizon. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 1 common share) rating for Santander in our next full update report.

Korea Electric Power Corporation (NYSE:KEP) reported weak 4Q 08 and FY 2008 results. Although revenues increased y-o-y, the company reported a loss at the operating and net levels. The company reported significant FY 2008 losses, below its own guidance announced in October 2008. In view of this, our outlook for the Kepco common stock remains negative and, therefore, we maintain our SELL rating for the common stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report. As we anticipate a negative currency impact on the ADR stock over our investment horizon, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR stock rating at current price levels. We will reassess the ADR rating and target price in our next update report.

Bunge Limited’s (NYSE:BG) declared its 4Q 08 and FY 2008 results on 05 February 2009, with its revenue and operating income falling significantly below our estimates. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic of the company’s global reach and wide product portfolio, which make it well positioned to meet rising demand when economic conditions improve. However, in light of disappointing results and challenging market conditions in the near term, we are likely to revise our estimates and target price downwards in our next update report. Until then, we maintain a HOLD rating for the common stock and will reassess the rating for Bunge in the coming weeks. As we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over the medium term, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the European stock rating for Bunge in coming weeks.
While Unilever N.V.’s (NYSE:UN) 4Q 08 revenues were in line with our estimate, adjusted1 operating profit, adjusted net profit and EPS were all below our estimates. Although the common stock target price does not support a HOLD rating at current price levels, in light of disappointing 4Q 08 results and the challenging economic environment, we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock at current levels. We will reassess the common stock rating and target price for Unilever N.V. in the coming weeks. Although current price levels do not support a SELL rating at current price levels, based on our fundamental outlook and as we expect a significant negative currency impact, we maintain our SELL rating for the NYSE stock over the medium term. We will reassess the NYSE stock rating and target price for Unilever in the coming weeks.

Unilever PLC (NYSE:UL) reported disappointing 4Q 08 results. Going forward, in light of weak 4Q 08 results and given the challenging economic environment, we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock at current price levels. We will reassess the common stock rating and target price for Unilever in the coming weeks. As we expect a significant negative currency impact over the medium term and given our weak fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR at current price levels. We will reassess the ADR rating and target price for Unilever in the coming weeks.

Deutsche Bank AG’s (NYSE:DB) 4Q 08 and FY 2008 top-line exceeded our estimates, but fell well short of consensus estimates. Meanwhile, the bottom-line was in line with our estimate in 4Q 08. We remain concerned about the bank’s fundamentals, considering the sensitivity of the global banking sector to ongoing volatility in global financial markets. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating. We will reassess our common stock rating for DB in our next full update report. We continue to anticipate a significant negative currency impact on the NYSE stock over the medium term. Therefore, we maintain our SELL rating. We will reassess our NYSE stock rating for DB in our next full update report.

News

The Mechel OAO (NYSE:MTL) ADR appreciated significantly on 04 February 2009, following news that an entity linked to Mechel CEO Igor Zyuzin had increased its holding in the company from 3.5% to 13.1%. However, we remain concerned about the company’s ability to repay or refinance its debt, considering its tight cash position. As a result, although the target price derived in our last update report does not support a HOLD, we maintain our HOLD rating. We will reassess our ADR target price and rating in our next update report, after the company releases its FY 2008 results. As the Russian stock trades in US dollars, we do not anticipate any currency impact over our investment horizon. Therefore, although the target price derived in our last update report does not support a HOLD, we maintain our HOLD rating. We will reassess our Russian stock target price and rating in our next update report, after the company releases its FY 2008 results.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson’s (NASDAQ:ERIC) common stock has appreciated 33.2% since our 3Q 08 update report, achieving our target price on 04 February 2009. We believe this price reflects investor confidence over the company’s strong sales performance in 4Q 08, beating our and market expectations in a challenging macro-environment. In addition, on 03 February 2009, Ericsson announced the completion of its deal with STMicroelectronics N.V. to form a 50-50 Joint Venture in the mobile platforms and wireless semiconductor arena. Overall, since the 4Q 08 and FY 2008 result announcement on 21 January 2009, the common stock has rallied 24.6%. We are moderating our rating from a BUY to a HOLD since the current price no longer supports our BUY rating. We will reassess the common stock rating and target price for Ericsson in the coming weeks. We continue to expect a negative currency impact over the next 6-24 months and hence maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 1 common share). We will reassess the ADR rating and target price for Ericsson in the coming weeks.

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.’s (NYSE:GNK) NYSE common stock increased significantly in a single trading session on 04 February 2009 reflecting a rise in both the Baltic Dry index (BDI) and Baltic Capesize Index (BCI). Freight rates have benefitted from increasing commodity demand from China. As a result, we maintain our positive outlook for the company and as we believe that the common stock is undervalued at current price levels, we maintain our BUY rating for the NYSE common stock. We will reassess the NYSE common stock rating for Genco once the company announces its 4Q 08 and FY 2008 results in February 2009. Given our positive fundamental outlook coupled with our anticipation of a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the European stock rating for Genco once the company announces its 4Q 08 and FY 2008 results in February 2009.

On 04 February 2009, Nova Chemicals Corporation’s (NYSE:NCX) NYSE common stock price soared following market reports that the company had secured funding from institutional investors to refinance its debt, which was eventually found to be false. As we expect to revise our estimates downwards in our next update report given the company’s delicate liquidity position and slowing polymer demand, we reiterate the common stock a HOLD although the target price does not support a HOLD. We will reassess the common stock rating and target price for Nova Chemicals in the coming weeks. Although we continue to anticipate a positive currency impact on the Canadian stock over our investment horizon, given our fundamental outlook, we reiterate the Canadian stock a HOLD. We will reassess the Canadian stock rating for Nova Chemicals in the coming weeks.

On 04 February 2009, Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE:SNY) announced the European Commission (EC) has cleared its acquisition plan of Zentiva NV (Zentiva). We believe Sanofi-Aventis, with its strong cash flow position, may strongly pursue a controlling stake in Zentiva through a revised bid to secure access to Zentiva’s generic capabilities, at a time when generics are preferable over branded drugs. However, the company has until 20 February 2008 before the deal is expected to close and expects intense resistance from the second largest shareholder of Zentiva. We maintain our positive outlook for the common stock, irrespective of the deal and, therefore, reiterate maintain our BUY rating. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report, once the company announces its 4Q 08 and FY2008 results. We maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR based on our expectation of a negative currency impact on the ADR over medium term. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report, once the company announces its 4Q 08 and FY2008 results.

On 04 February 2009, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Ltd. (NYSE:CEA) announced efforts to engage in various cost cutting initiatives in order to limit its losses in the future and to help the company break even in FY 2010. Although our target price does not support a SELL, we reiterate our SELL based on the company’s weak fundamentals. We will be reviewing our target price in our next update report. Although our target price does not support a SELL, we reiterate our SELL rating given our weak fundamental outlook. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. We will reassess the ADR (1 ADR = 100 common shares) rating in our next update report.

On 05 February 2009, NDS Group Plc’s (NASDAQ:NNDS) common stock achieved our target price of US$62.16. The recent increase in common stock price primarily reflects renewed investors’ optimism as News Corporation and Permira Advisers LLP (Permira) cleared the final regulatory hurdle to take the company private. News Corp and Permira had proposed to take NDS private in June 2008 at US$ 60.0 per share, which was subsequently raised to US$63.0 per share. All the formalities, including shareholder approval and final approval from the High Court of Justice in England and Wales have been accomplished. As the proposed transaction is expected to be fully effective on 05 February 2009, the trading of American Depository Shares (ADS) will be terminated. Consequently, we are discontinuing our coverage for the NASDAQ common stock. The European stock closed at €48.75 on 04 February 2009, following which the stock ceased to trade and will be delisted effective 05 February 2009. As a result we are terminating our coverage of the European stock.

On 04 February 2009, Cemex (NYSE:CX) provided sales guidance for FY 2009. The company expects volumes to decline across the majority of its operating geographies and product segments, reflecting the global downturn in the real estate and construction sectors. The company also provided its FY 2009 EBITDA guidance, which is below our expectation. However, we believe that Management’s guidance is conservative given that the company has not factored in the anticipated benefits of the US economic stimulus package, which will have a direct impact onthe company’s major operating region. Nevertheless, our outlook for Cemex remains cautious in light of the macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing slump in the construction sector. Therefore, we maintian our HOLD rating for the ADR at current price levels. We will reassess the target price and rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 10 Mexican shares) in our next update report in the coming weeks. As we expect a significant positive currency impact on the Mexican stock over the medium term, we maintain our BUY rating for the Mexican stock at current levels. We will reassess our Mexican stock target price and rating in our next update report in the coming weeks.

Grubb & Ellis Company’s (NYSE:GBE) NYSE common stock price increased significantly on 04 February 2009, continuing a trend of volatile price swings as the stock has recently been negatively impacted by investor concerns over the slump in the commercial real estate sector in the US as well as news reports that the company’s officers and directors are currently under investigation over possible security law violations. As a result, although the NYSE common stock target price derived in our last update report does not support a HOLD rating at current price levels, we maintain our HOLD rating and will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report, once the company announces its 4Q 08 and FY 2008 results.

On 05 February 2009, National Grid PLC (NYSE:NGG) announced its Interim Management Statement, noting a steady performance during the last quarter. However, given that we anticipate a fall in electricity demand in the US and UK, due to the economic downturn, our outlook is cautious going forward. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating at current price levels and will reassess the common stock rating and target price for National Grid in our next update report. As we expect a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over the medium term, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR at current price levels. We will reassess the ADR (1 ADR = 5 common shares) rating and target price in our next update report.

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