Research Oracle roundup for 30 April 2009
Earning Release
Everest Re Group’s (NYSE:RE) 1Q 09 adjusted total revenues were in line with our estimate as better-than-expected premiums were offset by significantly weaker net investment income. Adjusted net income was lower than our forecast reflecting higher-than-expected total claims and underwriting expenses during the quarter. In 1Q 09 the company purchased 40.0% of its 6.6% Floating Rate Long Term Subordinated Notes, due to which its debt has reduced by US$161.3 mn (-13.5%). Although this is positive, we expect only a relatively marginal reduction in the company’s interest expenses. Given the company’s exposure to Asset and Mortgaged backed securities, we believe that the company’s investment income will remain under pressure going forward. However, we are likely to revise our premium estimates upwards, given the impressive y-o-y increase in global reinsurance premiums in 1Q 09, and the growth in reported net income is also encouraging. As we expect to increase the target price in our next update report, we maintain our BUY rating for the stock even though price levels no longer support a BUY rating. We will reassess the NYSE common stock rating and target price for Everest Re in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and as we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the European Stock rating for Everest Re in the next update report.
Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.’s (NYSE:GNK) 1Q 09 results fell short of our expectations. Going forward, we hold a cautious outlook for the company’s future revenue growth, as the company’s recent renewal of time charter contracts at lower rates is an example of the industry wide downward trend, which we believe will have a significant negative impact on freight rates. Consequently, our outlook for the dry-bulk industry remains subdued. Considering these factors and the weaker than expected results, we are likely to revise our estimates marginally downwards. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating for Genco’s NYSE common stock until we can fully reassess our target price and rating in our next update report, in the coming weeks. Given our anticipation of a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report, in the coming weeks.
General Maritime Corporation’s (NYSE:GMR) Net Voyage (NV) revenues were in line with our estimate during the quarter. However, margins fell short of our expectations due to higher-than-expected vessel operating expense and general and administrative expense. As we expect spot rates to remain under pressure given the declining global demand for crude oil, we are likely to revise our estimates and target price downwards in our next update report. However, we remain optimistic about the company’s future growth prospects following the completion of the merger with Arlington. Moreover, the company has maintained its quarterly dividends which is very encouraging and will attract shareholders. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating for the NYSE common stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report, in the coming weeks. Given our positive fundamental outlook for the company and as we continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report, in the coming weeks.
Barrick Gold Corporation’s (NYSE:ABX) 1Q 09 top-line beat our estimate due to higher-than-anticipated gold prices. Going forward, our fundamental outlook remains positive, considering the company’s pipeline of development projects. However, at current levels, we see limited upside potential over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report. We continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the Canadian stock over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating. We will reassess our Canadian stock target price and rating for in our next update report.
KB Financial Group Inc.’s (NYSE:KB) 1Q 09 Net Interest Income (NII) came in below our estimate, while growth in operating expenses (including provisions) eroded the bottom-line, which fell well short of our and consensus estimates. As we are concerned about the near term impact of the economic downturn in South Korea and ongoing volatility in financial markets, and taking these disappointing results into account, we maintain our 6-12 month HOLD rating. We will reassess our common stock rating for KB in our next full update report. We continue to anticipate a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore we maintain our SELL rating. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 1 common share) rating for KB in our next full update report.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s (NYSE:SMI) 1Q 09 performance deteriorated significantly, but was better than we had expected. Management has highlighted a strong order recovery and expects the utilization rate to double over 2Q 09. It has also indicated that it expects to achieve profitability by the end of the year if market conditions do not deteriorate drastically. Management’s guidance is higher than our previous expectations and we are likely to revise our estimates upwards as a result. Subsequently, we moderate the ADR rating from a SELL to a HOLD although the current price level does not support a HOLD rating, until we revalue the ADR target price and rating in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook we moderate the Hong Kong stock from a SELL to a HOLD, although current price levels do not support a HOLD rating. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar; therefore, we do not anticipate any currency impact. We will reassess the Hong Kong stock (50 Hong Kong shares = 1 ADR) target price and rating for SMIC in our next update report.
While British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC’s (NYSE:BSY) revenues, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating income were in line with our estimate, adjusted net margin was lower than our estimate due to a higher-than-estimated tax rate and financial costs. Going forward we expect top-line to be driven by the Retail subscription segment in light of increasing demand for Sky+ and Broadband & Telephony products. As the current results were broadly in-line with our estimate we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock. We will reassess the common stock rating for BSkyB in the coming weeks. As the current ADR price supports a SELL rating coupled with our anticipated negative currency impact, we maintain our rating for the ADR over the next 6-12 months. We will reassess the ADR rating for BSkyB in coming weeks.
Canon Inc.’s (NYSE:CAJ) 1Q 09 top and bottom-line underperformed our expectations. Considering the prevailing weak global economic conditions and the associated cost cutting measures by multiple global corporations, we expect the demand for office equipment to remain subdued over the medium term. Therefore, we expect to revise our revenue estimates downwards, going forward. However, we expect multiple fiscal stimulus packages announced by major economies, such as Japan, the US and China, to revive the global economy over the medium term and expect an improvement in demand for Canon’s products over the medium term, albeit at a slower pace. Consequently, we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. We continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the ADR over the medium term. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating for the ADR over our 6-12 month investment horizon. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B de C.V. (NYSE:KOF) reported mixed 1Q 09 results. While revenues were above our estimate, operating income was broadly in line with our expectation. Adjusted net income was below our estimate due to higher-than-expected net interest expenses and effective tax rate during the quarter. Going forward, we believe revenue growth will be supported by strong volume growth and increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) in 1Q 09. In addition, the recent acquisition of the Colombian Brisa bottled Water Business, coupled with the development of innovative products under the still beverage category will further support revenue growth. Therefore, although the common stock target price does not support a BUY rating at current price levels, we maintain our BUY rating and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. Although we expect a negative currency impact on the ADR over our 6-12 month investment horizon; considering the current price levels, we maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 10 common shares). We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Dassault Systemes S.A.’s (OTC:DASTY) 1Q 09 top-line remained flat y-o-y, led by marginal growth reported in its Software segment on account of economic conditions having impacted the uptake of new licenses. Operating and net income declined significantly on account of higher cost of operations and tax charges. Despite lower-than-estimated 1Q 09 results, we maintain our BUY rating for the common stock, until we reassess our estimates and target price for the Dassault common stock in the coming weeks, considering its healthy recurring revenue stream, which offers a certain visibility in the current tough demand environment and as we are optimistic that the company’s cost saving programs will have a positive impact on margins beginning from FY 2009. As we expect a significant negative currency impact over our investment horizon and given current price levels, we maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our next update report.
Dun & Bradstreet Corporation’s (NYSE:DNB) 1Q 09 revenues fell slightly below our and market expectations for the quarter. Operating profitability was however, marginally above our estimate attributable to reduced operating expenses on account of financial flexibility initiatives undertaken by the company. Net income received a significant boost, mainly attributable a lower effective tax rate. DNB reiterated its guidance for FY 2009, which factors in a difficult operating environment led by the prevalent global economic slowdown. We expect a challenging demand environment and mute growth in the company’s Risk Management and Sales and Marketing sets, going forward. This, coupled with the unfavorable currency movements, is expected to cause a y-o-y decline in overall revenues growth in FY 2009. However, earnings expectations for FY 2009 are healthy and will be reinforced by the company’s effective cost control measures, coupled with the ongoing share repurchase program. Considering DNB’s performance during 1Q 09 as well as the levels at which the stock is currently trading, we are downgrading the common stock from a BUY to a HOLD. We will reassess the DNB NYSE common stock target price and rating in the coming weeks. We maintain our current rating for the European stock as we continue to anticipate a positive currency impact on the European stock over the next 6-12 months. We will reassess the rating for the European stock in the coming weeks.
Embotelladora Andina S.A. (NYSE:AKOa) reported robust growth in 1Q 09 revenues, in line with our estimate, reflecting higher volumes, favorable price adjustments and positive exchange rate impact from Argentine operations. Operating and adjusted1 net margin were marginally below our estimates, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost of sales. Therefore, in light of the mixed results, we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. As we expect a significant negative currency impact on the ADR (1 ADR = 6 common shares) over our 6-12 month investment horizon, in addition to our fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR at current price levels. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Embotelladora Andina S.A. (NYSE:AKOa) reported robust growth in 1Q 09 revenues, in line with our estimate, reflecting higher volumes, favorable price adjustments and positive exchange rate impact from Argentine operations. Operating and adjusted1 net margin were marginally below our estimates, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost of sales. Therefore, in light of the mixed results, we maintain our HOLD rating for the common stock and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. As we expect a significant negative currency impact on the ADR (1 ADR = 6 common shares) over our 6-12 month investment horizon, in addition to our fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR at current price levels. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica S.A.’s (NYSE:ERJ) 1Q 09 revenues were in line with our estimate, while profitability was significantly below estimate due to higher cost of sales and services and higher-than-anticipated income tax expenses. However, given the improvement in operating performance, expectations of declining costs due to a lower workforce, and current price levels, we do not anticipate a change to our BUY rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 4 Brazilian shares). We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.Given our fundamental outlook and as we expect a positive currency impact on the Brazilian stock over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the Brazilian stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson’s (NASDAQ:ERIC) net sales and earnings were above our expectations in 1Q 09. Going forward, we continue to expect the current global financial crisis and poor performance by Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB (Sony Ericsson) to negatively impact the company’s financial performance, in the medium term. However, we are likely to revise our estimates marginally upwards in view of better-than-expected 1Q 09 performance and expectations of benefits derived from cost savings measures pursued by Management. Therefore, we maintain our current HOLD rating for Ericsson’s common stock, despite the current price not supporting a HOLD rating. We will reassess the common stock rating and target price for Ericsson in the coming weeks. We continue to expect a negative currency impact1 over the next 6-12 months and hence maintain our SELL rating for the ADR (1 ADR= 1 common share). We will reassess the ADR rating and target price for Ericsson in the coming weeks.
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (NYSE:FMS) reported limited y-o-y growth in 1Q 09 revenues, which fell short of our estimate, while net performance was in line with our expectations. However, FMS’ plans to expand and strengthen its presence by launching new dialysis clinics in North America is expected to positively benefit the company. Consequently, our outlook for the company remains broadly unchanged. Furthermore, the current ADR price continues to support a BUY rating. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating for the ADR and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. We maintain our BUY rating for the European stock based on our expectation of a positive currency impact on the European stock over the medium term and our positive fundamental outlook for the company. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, S.A.B. de C.V.’s (NYSE:PAC) 1Q 09 performance exceeded our expectations reflecting higher than anticipated revenues coupled with income tax benefits. We downgraded the common stock to a SELL in our company news alert, dated 27 April 2009, reflecting the risks associated with the swine flu outbreak in Mexico. We maintain the common stock a SELL, despite the target price not supporting a SELL rating at current price levels, as we remain concerned by the company’s exposure to the swine flu virus. We will fully reassess the common stock target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report in the coming weeks. Given the risks associated with the swine flu outbreak, and as we expect a negative currency impact on the ADR over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 10 common shares). We will reassess the ADR in our 1Q 09 update report in the coming weeks.
In 1Q 09, Grupo Televisa S.A.’s (NYSE:TV) net sales were in line with our estimates, while margins were above our estimate due to lower-than-anticipated cost of sales and net finance expense, partially offset by higher-than-expected administrative and tax expenses. In light of better-than-expected 1Q 09 results and expected strong performance from Sky and Cable & Telecom segments, we maintain our BUY rating for the common stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. Although we continue to expect a negative currency impact on the ADR over our investment horizon, given the current price levels we maintain our HOLD rating on the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd.’s (NYSE:GSH) FY 2008 revenue and profitability were below our estimate reflecting lower than anticipated passenger and freight traffic coupled with higher operating and interest expenses. However, given the robust performance in 1Q 091 we do not anticipate a change in our common stock rating. We will reassess the common stock target price and rating in our FY 2008 update report in the coming weeks. Given our fundamental outlook, we do not anticipate a change in our ADR (1 ADR = 50 common shares) rating. We will reassess the ADR rating in our FY 2008 update report in the coming weeks. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar.
Maxcom Telecomunicaciones, S.A. de C.V.’s (NYSE:MXT) 1Q 09 results fell short of our expectations at every level due to weak performance, mainly from its largest revenue generating segment, Residential Telephony. In addition, margins were impacted y-o-y on account of significantly higher network operation costs. Considering the lower-than-expected 1Q 09 results, we expect to revisit our estimates and target price in our next update report. Hence, we moderate the Maxcom CPO rating from a BUY to a HOLD until we reassess our estimates and target price in our next update report. Considering our fundamental outlook, coupled with an expected negative currency impact over our 6-12 month horizon we maintain our HOLD rating for the ADR and will reassess our target price and ADR rating in the following weeks.
Novo Nordisk A.S. (NYSE:NVO) reported robust y-o-y revenue performance in 1Q 09, reflecting higher sales from both segments. Revenues and operating performance was in line with our expectations for 1Q 09, while net performance was below our expectation. Going forward, we expect modern insulin and NovoSeven to continue to drive top-line growth. In addition, Management has reiterated its FY 2009 sales and operating income guidance, which supports our positive outlook for the company. Considering these factors, we maintain our BUY rating for the common stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. Based on our expectation of a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we maintain our SELL rating for the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.’s (NYSE:RNR) 1Q 09 adjusted total revenues exceeded our estimate, reflecting higher-than-expected net premiums earned and net investment income. Bottomline also exceeded our forecast in 1Q 09 as the impact of higher-than-expected top-line was only partially limited by higher-than-expected total claims and underwriting expenses. Going forward, we believe that the Reinsurance segment’s impressive premium performance, reflecting increasing rates and inception of new programs, will provide support to top-line in tough prevailing economic conditions. Given the 1Q 09 performance, we are likely to revise our premiums written and investment income estimates upwards. As a result, we are likely to marginally increase our target price, which at current levels leads us to upgrade our NYSE common stock rating from a HOLD to a BUY. We will reassess the NYSE common stock rating for RenaissanceRe in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and as we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the rating for RenaissanceRe in the coming weeks.
SK Telecom Co. Ltd (NYSE:SKM) released its 1Q 09 results today. In 1Q 09, results revenues, EBITDA and operating income were in line with our estimates, while adjusted net income was below our estimate due to higher-than-expected other expenses. Going forward, we expect robust expansion in subscriberbase and an anticipated increase in Cellular and Interconnection Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to drive top-line growth. Furthermore, we expect expansion in EBITDA margin, driven by an expected decline in advertising and leased line expenses, as a percentage of revenues. In light of this, we reiterate our BUY rating for the common stock. We will reassess the common stock rating for SKT in the coming weeks. In light of significant negative currency impact over the next 6-12 months and as the current price supports a SELL rating, we downgrade the ADR from a HOLD to a SELL. We will reassess the ADR rating for SKT in the coming weeks.
Smith & Nephew PLC (NYSE:SNN) reported a decline in 1Q 09 revenues, falling short of our estimate. However, operating and net level performance was in line with our expectations in 1Q 09. Going forward, we maintain our positive outlook for the company, based on new product launches and the earnings improvement program. Considering our positive outlook and current ADR price levels; we maintain our BUY rating for the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. We maintain our BUY rating for the UK stock based on our expectation of a positive currency impact over the medium term and our positive fundamental outlook for the company. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
STMicroelectronics N.V.’s (NYSE:STM) results include the impact of consolidation of its joint venture with Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (Ericsson), ST-Ericsson, from 02 February 2009, rendering our estimates incomparable. The company’s 1Q 09 performance has deteriorated significantly, as anticipated, reflecting the impact of declining demand for semiconductors. In its 1Q 09 press release STM announced that ST-Ericsson has started a new cost saving program which is expected to lead to US$230 mn in annualized cost savings from 2Q 10. Until we are able to fully assess the impact of the JV and the additional cost saving program on STM’s performance, we moderate the stock from a SELL to a HOLD, although the current price does not support a HOLD rating. We will reassess the ADR target price and rating for STM in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and in view of our anticipation of a significant positive currency impact on the European stock (1 ADR = 1 European share) over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we reiterate our current HOLD rating for the stock, although our target price does not currently support a HOLD rating. We will reassess the European stock rating for STM in our next update report.
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited’s (NYSE:AHL) 1Q 09 adjusted total revenues exceeded our estimate, reflecting higher-than-expected premiums and net investment income. Bottom-line also exceeded our forecast in 1Q 09 as the impact of higher-than-expected claims and underwriting expenses was more than offset by higher-than-expected top-line. Although we expect to increase our net premiums earned estimates based on 1Q 09 performance, we do not expect a significant change in our total gross premiums written estimate for FY 2009 as it is already in line with company projections. We are encouraged by the q-o-q increase in the company’s investment portfolio and given the net investment income performance in 1Q 09, we are likely to revise our expectations upwards. Moreover, we believe Aspen is relatively well positioned in the current market environment and our outlook for the stock is positive. Therefore, at current price levels, we upgrade the NYSE common stock rating from a HOLD to a BUY. We will reassess the NYSE common stock rating for Aspen in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and as we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our 6-12 month investment horizon, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the rating for Aspen in our next update report.
AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE:AZN) reported flat sales growth in 1Q 09. Although sales was marginally below our estimate, operating and net performance exceeded our expectations in 1Q 09. Considering the better-than-expected operating and net performance by AstraZeneca, we may revise our estimates upwards. Hence, we maintain our current BUY rating for the ADR. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. We continue to anticipate a positive currency impact on the UK stock over our 6-12 month investment horizon. Consequently, we maintain our BUY rating for the UK stock based on our fundamental outlook and anticipated positive currency impact on the UK stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Banco Santander-Chile (NYSE:SAN) reported a y-o-y decline in net income in 1Q 09, reflecting a sharp rise in provision expenses. Going forward, although we remain concerned about loan growth and deterioration in credit quality, we are encouraged by improvement in cost efficiency as well as the company’s selective lending policy. Therefore, we do not anticipate a significant revision to our target price or estimates, and we maintain our 6-12 month BUY rating. We will reassess our common stock rating and target price in our next update report. We continue to anticipate a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 1,039 common shares) rating and target price in our next update report.
Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. (NYSE:BVN) announced its 1Q 09 results on 29 April 2009. Although revenues were slightly below our estimate, adjusted net income was in line with our expectations. Going forward, we remain optimistic about the company’s ongoing projects, which should lift gold production volumes. We also expect gold prices to rebound from current levels in FY 2009, although we are concerned about near term volatility in bullion prices. Therefore, we maintain our 6-12 month SELL rating for the ADR. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 1 Peruvian share) in our next update report. We continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the Peruvian stock over the coming 6-12 months. However, considering our fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating. We will reassess our Peruvian stock rating in our next update report.
Flextronics International Limited (NASDAQ:FLEX) registered a slump in its 4Q 09 top-line and earnings, with both coming under our estimates for the quarter. The deteriorating global economic environment continues to impact consumer and IT spending, hindering the performance of players in the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) industry in the near term. Given the lower-than-expected 1Q 09 results and our bleak outlook regarding the EMS industry, we maintain Flextronics’ NASDAQ common stock rating a SELL until we can fully reassess the company in our 4Q 09 update report in the coming weeks. Although we anticipate a positive currency impact on the European stock over our 6-12 months investment horizon, we downgrade the European stock from a BUY to a SELL based on our fundamental outlook. We will reassess the European stock rating for Flextronics in the coming weeks.
FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:FUJI) announced 4Q 09 and FY 2009 revenues in line with our estimates, as the prevailing downturn in global economic conditions and weak consumer spending impacted the company’s performance during the quarter. Moreover in light of such a weak operating environment, we expect to revise our estimates downwards in our next update report. Consequently, we maintain our SELL rating for the common stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 4Q 09 and FY 2009 update report. We maintain our BUY rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 1 share) based on our anticipation of a significant positive currency impact on the ADR over the medium term2. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 4Q 09 and FY 2009 update report.
Shire Ltd. (NASDAQ:SHPGY) reported modest growth in 1Q 09 revenues, marginally above our estimate. Adjusted operating margin and net margin exceeded our expectations in 1Q 09. We expect the company to continue to benefit, in terms of revenues and margins, from new product launches in FY 2009. Therefore, we maintain our positive outlook for the company. Consequently, we maintain our BUY rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 3 UK shares) and will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report. We maintain our BUY rating for the UK stock based on our expectation of a positive currency impact over our 6-12 month investment horizon and our positive fundamental outlook for the company. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 1Q 09 update report.
Covidien Ltd. (NYSE:COV) reported robust sales growth in 2Q 09, exceeding our expectation. Operating and net performance also exceeded our expectations. Therefore, we are likely to revise our profitability estimates marginally upwards in our 2Q 09 update report. Consequently, we maintain our positive outlook for the company. Moreover, we continue to believe the company’s continued focus on Research and Development (R&D), to capitalize on high growth and profitable businesses, will support sales growth, going forward. Consequently, we maintain our BUY rating for the NYSE common stock and will reassess our target price and rating in our 2Q 09 update report. We maintain our BUY rating for the European stock based on our expectation of a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over the medium term and our positive fundamental outlook for the company. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 2Q 09 update report.
While Infineon Technologies AG’s (OTC:IFNNY) 2Q 09 net sales were in line with our expectations, operating and net performance were better-than-expected, despite reporting significant deterioration. Going forward, we expect to revise our estimates upwards given the 2Q 09 results and Management guidance for net sales and further cost reductions which exceed our earlier expectations. However, we remain cautious about its ability to refinance debt and are concerned by the continued lack of investor interest in Qimonda AG (Qimonda) in which the company has a majority interest. A class action lawsuit brought by former employees of its subsidiaries in the US for damages arising from layoffs is a further illustration of its precarious position. Hence, we maintain our SELL rating for the common stock. We will reassess the common stock rating for Infineon in our next full update report. We maintain our SELL rating for the ADR based on our fundamental outlook and anticipated negative currency impact over our 6-12 month investment horizon. We will reassess the ADR rating for Infineon in our next full update report.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) reported a significant y-o-y decline in net sales and operating performance in 1Q 09, reflecting a significant fall in semiconductor demand across all applications; but results exceeded Management’s revised guidance and our expectations. Management believes that 2H 09 will experience a strong rebound in orders resulting in a substantial increase in top-line and earnings. As the company’s guidance for the next quarter is higher than our previous expectations, we are likely to revise our estimates upwards. At current levels, we maintain our HOLD rating for the TSMC common stock, and will reassess the target price and rating in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and anticipated negative currency impact on the ADR over our 6- 12 month investment horizon we maintain our current SELL rating for the ADR. We will reassess the ADR (1 ADR = 5 common shares) rating and target price for TSMC in our next update report.
Tyco International Ltd.’s (NYSE:TYC) revenues and earnings declined y-o-y in 2Q 09. Although revenues were in line with our estimate, adjusted1 operating income was lower than our and market expectations. However, adjusted net income exceeded our estimate during the quarter. In light of this, we do not anticipate a change in our current NYSE common stock rating. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 2Q 09 update report. As we continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock over our 6- 12 month investment horizon, we do not anticipate a change in our current BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess our target price and rating in our 2Q 09 update report.
Willis Group Holdings Limited’s (NYSE:WSH) 1Q 09 total revenues fell short of our expectation. However, adjusted net income well surpassed our expectation reflecting lower-than-expected operating and interest expenses during the quarter. Y-o-y revenue growth was primarily attributable to the Hilb Rogal and Hobbs Company (HRH) acquisition. In difficult market conditions, the company reported an improvement in operating and net margin in 1Q 09, reflecting strong cost management strategies. Given the 1Q 09 performance, we are likely to increase our bottom-line estimates. Although we remain concerned by the company’s high leverage, our outlook for the stock has definitely improved. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD rating for Willis’s NYSE common stock, although the target price no longer suggests a HOLD. We will reassess the NYSE common stock rating for Willis in our next update report. Based on our fundamental outlook and as we anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the European stock, we maintain our BUY rating for the European stock. We will reassess the rating for Willis in our next update report.
News
On 29 April 2009, Allianz SE (NYSE:AZ) announced preliminary figures for 1Q 09 operating profit and net income. Although Management expects operating profit and net income to fall y-o-y, we are encouraged that the company has maintained its profitable position despite weakness in credit markets. As preliminary results exceed our expectations we plan to increase our estimates for the stock and our long term fundamental outlook remains positive. Consequently, we maintain our current BUY rating. We will reassess our common stock rating for Allianz in our next update. As we continue to anticipate a negative currency impact on the ADR over our investment horizon, we maintain our current HOLD rating for the ADR. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 0.1 common shares) rating for Allianz in our next update.
On 30 April 2009, Alumina Limited (NYSE:AWC) announced a non-renounceable rights issue to raise up to A$1.0 bn, which will be used to repay debt and strengthen the balance sheet; this should reduce interest expenses, going forward. However, we expect aluminum prices to moderate over the near-tomedium term in reflection of the current global economic environment. Considering this, as well as the company’s weaker-than-expected FY 2008 results, we expect to lower our estimates and target price in our next update report. Nevertheless, in our view the recent decline in the stock price has left the company well undervalued. Therefore, we maintain our 6-12 month BUY rating. We will reassess our common stock rating and target price in our next update report. We continue to anticipate a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 4 common shares) rating and target price in our next update report.
Gafisa S.A.’s (NYSE:GFA) common stock has appreciated 27.4% since our update report. We believe the increase in common stock price primarily reflects market reaction to the downward trend in interest rates, with the Brazilian Central Bank cutting the SELIC rate from 11.25% to 10.25% on 29 April 2009. Although we believe these measures will boost real estate spending, supporting the company over the long term, we had already assumed a reduction in interest rates in valuing the company in our last update report. At current price levels, as our medium term outlook is cautious in light of weakening macroeconomic conditions in the country, we downgrade the common stock rating to a SELL. We will reassess the target price and rating once the company announces its 1Q 09 results. As we expect a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over our 6-12 month investment horizon and given our fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating. We will reassess our target price and rating for the ADR (1 ADR = 2 common shares) in our next update report, once the company issues its 1Q 09 results.
Lihir Gold Limited (NASDAQ:LIHR) has announced a solid set of production results for 1Q 09, noting improved ore grades at Lihir Island. Gold production also benefitted from the acquisition of the Mt. Rawdon and Bonikro mines from Equigold NL. We expect gold prices to rebound from current levels during FY 2009. However, considering the recent volatility in the ADR price, we reiterate our 6-12 month SELL rating. We will reassess our ADR (1 ADR = 10 Australian shares) rating for Lihir Gold after it releases its 1H 09 results in August 2009. We continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the Australian stock over the coming 6-12 months. However, considering our fundamental outlook, we maintain our SELL rating. We will reassess our Australian stock rating for Lihir Gold after it releases its 1H 09 results in August 2009.
Cadbury PLC (NYSE:CBY) reported strong confectionery revenue growth in 1Q 09, driven by strong performances from all operating sectors, except Europe and North America. Furthermore, Management has reiterated its FY 2009 guidance, despite the ongoing global financial market weakness. Going forward, we expect the implementation of cost cutting measures (through the company’s vision into action plan) to positively impact operating margin. Based on current price levels, coupled with the company’s strong fundamentals, we maintain our positive outlook on the company. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating for the common stock and will reassess our target price and rating once the company announces its 1H 09 results. Although we anticipate a negative currency impact on the ADR (1 ADR = 4 common shares) over our 6-12 month investment horizon, based on current price levels and our positive fundamental outlook for the company, we maintain our current HOLD rating. We will reassess our target price and rating once the company announces its 1H 09 results. 2009.
Wipro Ltd.’s (NYSE:WIT) common stock price has appreciated 20.5% since our previous update report, supported by a broader market recovery. However, we remain concerned regarding the declining demand for IT services from US and European clients, who collectively account for more than 80% of Wipro’s revenues. We expect organizations to continue to trim IT budgets as part of wider cost cutting measures in the current environment. Based on these challenging operating conditions, Management’s mute guidance and the current stock price levels, we maintain our cautious outlook on the Wipro common stock and are downgrading it from a HOLD to a SELL. As we continue to anticipate a significant negative currency impact on the ADR over the medium term, we do not anticipate a change in our current rating for the Wipro ADR.
Aluminum Corporation of China (NYSE:ACH) announced its 1Q 09 results on 30 April 2009. During the quarter, revenues declined y-o-y, while the company reported losses at the operating and net levels due to a significant increase in asset impairments. We are likely to cut our estimates and target price in our next update report in light of these results and the downward trend in spot aluminum prices. Therefore, we lower our 6-12 month common stock rating to a SELL. We will reassess our rating in our next update report. The Hong Kong dollar is currently pegged to the US dollar. Therefore, no currency impact is expected on the ADR over the coming 6-12 months. In line with our fundamental outlook, we downgrade the ADR (1 ADR = 25 common share) to a SELL. We will reassess our rating in our next update report.
On 30 April 2009, Anglo American PLC (NASDAQ:AAUK) released its 1Q 09 production update, which noted a significant decline in production from the Base Metals segment, although this was partially offset by higher production of iron ore and equivalent refined platinum. We expect commodities prices to remain weak throughout FY 2009. However, we remain optimistic about the company’s project pipeline, which should support medium-to-long term growth. Overall, we view the recent decline in the ADR price as a buying opportunity and therefore maintain our 6-12 month BUY rating. We will reassess our ADR (2 ADRs = 1 UK share) rating after the company releases its full 1H 09 results. We continue to anticipate a significant positive currency impact on the UK stock over the coming 6-12 months. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating. We will reassess our UK stock rating after the company releases its full 1H 09 results.
New Valuations
Itau Unibanco Banco Multiplo S.A. (NYSE:ITU) Brazilian GDP grew by 5.1% in FY 2008 (compared to 5.7% in FY 2007), and the central bank (Banco Central do Brazil, or BCB) forecasts a slight contraction in GDP for 2009, followed by growth of 3.5% in 2010. Meanwhile, CPI inflation has eased from a high of 6.4% in November 2008 to 5.6% in March 2009 and, according to the BCB, inflation will fall to an annualized rate of 4.3% in December 2009 and in 2010. Lower inflationary pressure and the slowdown in GDP growth prompted the BCB to reduce its short term interest rate (SELIC) by 350 bps, in three stages, to 10.25% as of 29 April 2009. Considering the country’s downbeat economic outlook, we expect credit off-take to slow down in the near-to-medium term, although the company’s extensive distribution network is expected to support credit growth and limit pressure on the top-line. However, we remain concerned about ongoing deterioration in asset quality, although the company made additional provisions of BRL3,023 mn in 4Q 08, bringing its coverage ratio to a healthy 184%. The company is also focusing on corporate lending in an effort to reinforce asset quality. Consequently, we expect provisions to stand at around 5.5% of total loans in FY 2009, before falling from FY 2010 onwards. On balance, the merged Itau-Unibanco has a strong capital adequacy ratio of 16.1%, which well above the BCB’s minimum requirement of 11%. Therefore, the company is well-placed to withstand the current financial crisis. Going forward, we expect cost efficiency to improve, as synergy benefits begin accruing. Furthermore, although the economic downturn may dent fee and insurance income in the near term, there is healthy long term growth potential, given the company’s enhanced market power and the underpenetrated nature of the Brazilian insurance market.
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Disclaimer
Independent International Investment Research PLC supplies this research via Pronet Analytics.com Ltd. (’Pronet’). Pronet is Regulated and Authorized by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and registered with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). You are reminded that investment advice provided by Pronet is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. Any advice or recommendations contained in this report may not be suitable for you and are not intended to be relied upon by you in the making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decision. Such decisions should only be made on the basis of independent advice from an appropriately qualified adviser. Pronet Analytics.com Ltd. and Independent Financial Markets Research Ltd. are subsidiaries of Independent International Investment Research PLC (the ‘Group’). Research analysts working for the Group are subject to stringent confidentiality and security policies and are located in secure-access premises which may be in the proximity of professionals conducting similar work for other firms. The Group is not nor has been nor will be engaged in investment banking and does not make markets in any of the securities covered in this report or have any investment banking relationship with the firm whose security is covered in this report. No employee or contractor of the Group is permitted to personally buy or sell stock in the company covered in this report, and neither the analysts responsible for this report nor any related household members are officers, directors, or advisory board members of any covered company. No one at a covered company is on the Board of Directors of the Group or any of its affiliates. This report is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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