Novo Nordisk AS (NYSE:NVO) – Modern insulin to continue star performance, going forward.
Novo Nordisk's business in the US, which contributed 51% share of growth to the company's Diabetes Care revenues was the largest contributor followed by International operations (29% of revenues) and Europe (19% of revenues). The US business is expected to continue growing, propelled by an increase in modern insulin, further supported by new product launches and deeper penetration of products such as Levemir and NovoLog over the next 2 years. However, any delay in FDA approval for Liraglutide's launch in the US may hamper US business revenue growth in FY 2010. European business revenue is expected to benefit from deeper penetration and higher demand for NovoSeven, modern insulin and Victoza over the next 2 years. Improvement in Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) due to a change in product mix favoring high margin modern insulin, coupled with a decline in Research and Development (R&D) spending in lieu of timing of phase 3 clinical trial programs, is expected to benefit operating level margin in FY 2009. However, greater marketing efforts required to promote new launches such as Victoza in Europe and Lariglutide in the US, coupled with efforts to increase penetration in emerging markets, is expected to increase Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses, putting pressure on margins in FY 2010. Considering the company's strong cash position, we continue to believe the company is in a position to easily meet its financial commitments over the next 2 years. Therefore, we maintain our positive outlook for the company.
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